Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Best Bet – 6/14/2024

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners are set to host the Texas Rangers on June 14, 2024, at T-Mobile Park in what promises to be an intriguing American League West matchup. The Mariners, with a solid 40-31 record, are having a good season and looking to strengthen their playoff position. Meanwhile, the Rangers, sitting at 33-35, are hovering around average and will be looking to gain some ground in the division.

Seattle will send Luis Castillo to the mound, who has been a reliable arm this season. Castillo holds a 5-7 record with a stellar 3.35 ERA over 14 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Castillo is ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher in the league, which underscores his quality. He is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out 6.1 batters, which bodes well for the Mariners. However, Castillo's projections also indicate he might allow 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks, which could pose some challenges.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has struggled this season. Heaney has a 2-7 record with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts. Heaney's projections are less favorable, with an expected 5.0 innings pitched, 2.4 earned runs allowed, and 5.9 strikeouts. Additionally, Heaney's projections suggest he might allow 4.3 hits and 1.9 walks, which could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that ranks 8th in MLB in home runs.

Offensively, the Mariners have been inconsistent, ranking 23rd overall, but their power has been a bright spot. Dominic Canzone has been their best hitter over the last week, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.095 OPS in his last four games. The Rangers, meanwhile, rank 18th in offense and have seen a spark from Wyatt Langford, who has hit .353 with a .950 OPS over the past week.

With the Mariners favored at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, the projections align closely, giving Seattle a 59% chance of victory. Expect a competitive game, but the Mariners' edge in starting pitching and power might just tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (90.7 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Josh Smith's true offensive talent to be a .311, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .046 disparity between that mark and his actual .357 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Texas's 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jonah Heim has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.58 vs Seattle Mariners 4.11

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