Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics Pick For 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers
  • Brady Basso - Athletics

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The struggling Oakland Athletics are set to host the Texas Rangers at the Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2024, in the second game of this American League West matchup. Both teams find themselves out of contention, with the Athletics holding a 68-89 record and the Rangers at 74-83.

Brady Basso will take the mound for the Athletics, sporting an impressive 2.33 ERA despite being projected as below average in THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. While Basso's ERA suggests dominance, his 3.71 xFIP indicates a potential regression is looming. With just three starts this season, Basso will need to rely on his elite ability to limit earned runs, though his struggles with allowing hits and walks could be concerning.

On the other side, the Rangers are sending Cody Bradford to the hill. Bradford, with a more seasoned 12 starts, is an average pitcher per the Power Rankings. He enters the game with a 3.59 ERA, which is solid. Bradford's ability to keep runs at bay while maintaining a knack for limiting walks will be crucial against an Athletics lineup ranked 20th in offense but surprisingly 7th in home runs.

Offensively, the Athletics will look to capitalize on their power despite ranking poorly in batting average and overall offense. Tyler Soderstrom has been a bright spot recently, boasting a .462 average over the past week. The Rangers, with a struggling offense that ranks 25th overall, will lean on Josh H. Smith, who has been effective lately, hitting .320 with an .826 OPS in his last six games.

As the game approaches, betting markets highlight its potential tightness, with the Athletics having a slight implied underdog status. Still, Basso's ability to suppress earned runs offers Oakland a glimmer of hope in what could be a competitive battle.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all SPs, Cody Bradford's fastball velocity of 89.2 mph ranks in the 5th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past two weeks, Adolis Garcia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Compared to average, Brady Basso has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -15.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

J.J. Bleday is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 10th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 80 games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Zack Gelof has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.96 vs Oakland Athletics 3.94

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