Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 5/26/2024

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Rangers
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Betting odds have yet to be released for this game, as the Rangers have yet to choose a starting pitcher.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Minnesota Twins will host the Texas Rangers on May 26, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, with a season record of 28-23, are having an above-average season, while the Rangers, with a record of 24-29, are having a below-average season.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez, who ranks as the #20 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has started 10 games this year and has a win/loss record of 4-4. Although his ERA stands at 4.72, his 3.07 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Lopez is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters. However, he tends to allow a high number of hits and walks, which could pose a challenge against the powerful Rangers offense.

On the flip side, the Rangers have not decided on a starting pitcher just yet. This has resulted in there not being a clear favorite in this matchup, as odds for the game will be released once a pitcher has been announced for the game.

The Twins offense, ranking as the 16th best in MLB, has been average this season. They rank 22nd in team batting average, 7th in team home runs, and 24th in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Rangers offense has been more potent, ranking as the 15th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 2nd in MLB, and team home runs, ranking 5th, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 25th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Twins have the 2nd best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rangers rank 17th. This could give the Twins an advantage in the late innings of the game.

With the Twins having home-field advantage, the matchup between Lopez and the Rangers starter to be named will be crucial. Lopez's tendency to allow hits and walks could be exploited by the powerful Rangers offense, while it remains to be seen who the challenge will be for the strikeout-prone Twins offense. Both teams will look to capitalize on their respective strengths and gain an edge in this important matchup.

Overall, the Twins and Rangers will battle it out at Target Field, with the Twins aiming to continue their above-average season, while the Rangers aim to turn their below-average season around. With the pitching matchup and the offensive strengths of each team in mind, this game promises to be an exciting showdown between two competitive American League teams.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jonah Heim's quickness has declined this season. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.07 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Texas Rangers batters jointly have been one of the best in MLB since the start of last season (2nd-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez's four-seam fastball rate has spiked by 5.7% from last year to this one (34.5% to 40.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.5) provides evidence that Byron Buxton has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his 25.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pablo Lopez has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.74 vs Minnesota Twins 3.88

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