Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 5/24/2024

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Rangers
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to square off against the Texas Rangers on May 24, 2024, at Target Field. This American League matchup will see the Twins, with a season record of 26-23, playing as the home team against the Rangers, who have a record of 24-27 and are having a below-average season.

Bailey Ober is projected to start for the Twins. Ober, a right-handed pitcher, has started nine games this season and has a win/loss record of 4-2. His ERA stands at 4.40, which is considered average. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Rangers are projected to start Jose Urena, who is not one of the top pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Urena has made 13 appearances out of the bullpen this year and has a win/loss record of 1-3. His ERA of 3.29 is impressive, but his 4.19 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward.

The Twins offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, while the Rangers offense ranks 13th. However, the Rangers have a higher team batting average and more home runs than the Twins. It's worth noting that the Twins have the second-best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rangers' bullpen ranks 16th.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 58%. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favor the Twins with a projected win probability of 63%. This suggests that there may be value in betting on the Twins in this game.

In their last game, the Twins played the Nationals and won by a score of 3-2. The Rangers, on the other hand, played the Phillies and lost 5-2. These recent performances may give the Twins a slight edge coming into this matchup.

Overall, while the Rangers have a strong offense, the Twins' solid pitching and bullpen, along with their above-average season record, make them the favorites in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, so fans and bettors should tune in to see how this American League showdown unfolds.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Corey Seager's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.12 ft/sec last year to 25.09 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will be challenged by the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Byron Buxton is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Texas (#2-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.39 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+17.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.39 vs Minnesota Twins 5.28

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