Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 6/26/2024

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers prepare to clash on June 26, 2024, they're facing vastly different seasons. The Brewers, sitting at 47-33, are enjoying a strong campaign and are in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are struggling at 37-42 and looking to find some consistency.

The Brewers will send Colin Rea to the mound. Despite his impressive 3.29 ERA and a solid 6-2 record over 15 starts, Rea's underlying metrics suggest he's been fortunate. His 4.50 xFIP indicates potential regression. Rea's low 15.6% strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a Rangers lineup that is 6th in MLB in avoiding strikeouts.

Nathan Eovaldi, the Rangers' projected starter, brings a 3.15 ERA and a 3-3 record over 12 starts. While his 3.70 SIERA hints at some luck, he's been a reliable arm. Eovaldi's 3.66 FIP corroborates this, showing he could be due for some regression but remains solid.

Offensively, the Brewers hold several advantages. They rank 9th in MLB, boast the 5th-best team batting average, and lead the league in stolen bases. Their balanced attack gives them an edge over a Rangers offense ranked 22nd overall, struggling with power at 21st in home runs and 20th in stolen bases.

In the bullpen, Milwaukee's relievers rank 5th in advanced-stat Power Rankings, providing a strong back-end support. The Rangers' bullpen, ranked 13th, is average but not a glaring weakness.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, views the Rangers as slight favorites with a 55% win probability. This contrasts with the near-even betting markets, where both teams are set at -110 moneyline odds, suggesting a tight contest. The Brewers project to score 4.23 runs, while the Rangers are forecasted to tally 5.03 runs, highlighting a potential edge for Texas.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jonah Heim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea is projected to average 3.11 earned runs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 78 games (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+15.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.25 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.21 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.46

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