Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 6/2/2024

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Miami Marlins are set to host the Texas Rangers at LoanDepot Park on June 2, 2024. The Marlins, who are having a rough season with a record of 21-38, will look to turn things around against the Rangers, who have had a below-average season with a record of 28-30.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers, who has had a challenging season with a win/loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 5.65. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has also struggled this season with a win/loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 4.47.

Both teams have had their struggles offensively this season. The Marlins rank as the 29th best offense in MLB, while the Rangers rank 17th. However, the Marlins have shown strength in team batting average, ranking third in the league, while the Rangers have excelled in both batting average (2nd) and home runs (5th).

Defensively, the Marlins bullpen is ranked 24th, while the Rangers bullpen is ranked 20th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in the later innings of the game.

The Marlins' best hitter over the last seven games has been Jesus Sanchez, who has recorded impressive stats including 8 hits, 4 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .364 and an OPS of 1.119. The Rangers' standout hitter in the past week has been Corey Seager, who has recorded 8 hits, 5 runs, 8 RBIs, and 4 home runs, with a batting average of .421 and an OPS of 1.658.

Considering the projected starting pitchers and the offensive performances, this game has the potential to be a close matchup. The current odds favor the Rangers, with an implied win probability of 54%, while the Marlins have an implied win probability of 46%. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for the total runs scored in the game.

With the Marlins looking to bounce back and the Rangers aiming to improve their season, this game promises an intriguing battle between two teams hungry for a win. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see which team comes out on top in this Interleague clash.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Miami Marlins have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Robbie Grossman has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 11.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount lower than his 18.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+14.25 Units / 38% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.04 vs Miami Marlins 4.31

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