Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 6/12/2024

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Texas Rangers at Dodger Stadium on June 12, 2024, for the second game of their interleague series. The Dodgers, boasting a stellar 42-26 record, have been dominant this season, while the Rangers, sitting at 31-35, are struggling to find their footing. Yesterday, the Dodgers trounced the Rangers 15-2, showcasing their top-ranked offense and further solidifying their status as a powerhouse in MLB.

Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers, bringing a 1-3 record and a 4.82 ERA. Despite his below-average ERA, Buehler's 3.79 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.4 walks while striking out 4.5 batters. Buehler's last outing was a rough one, lasting just three innings and giving up three earned runs.

The Rangers counter with Jon Gray, who has been a bright spot in their rotation with a 2-2 record and an impressive 2.21 ERA. However, his 3.55 xFIP indicates he might regress. Gray is projected to pitch 4.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.3 hits, and 1.5 walks while striking out 3.9 batters.

Offensively, the Dodgers are firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Shohei Ohtani leads the charge with a .312 batting average, 16 home runs, and 43 RBIs. Teoscar Hernandez has been on fire recently, hitting .417 with five home runs and 12 RBIs over the last week.

The Rangers' offense ranks 16th overall, with Marcus Semien as their standout performer, hitting .285 with 11 home runs and 37 RBIs. Josh H. Smith has also been hot, batting .357 with a 1.143 OPS over the last week.

The Dodgers' bullpen ranks 10th, while the Rangers' bullpen struggles at 22nd. With the Dodgers as -165 favorites and projected to score 5.18 runs, they have a clear edge. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 64% win probability, making them a strong bet to take the series.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Gray to throw 70 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Marcus Semien's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Texas Rangers have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Walker Buehler in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Because of Dane Dunning's large platoon split, Miguel Rojas will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+4.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.1 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.18

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