Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves well out of playoff contention in the American League West. The Angels, with a dismal record of 63-97, and the Rangers, sitting at 76-84, are both looking to finish the season on a positive note. The Angels dropped the first game of this series, and they'll look to even things up at Angel Stadium.

Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels, bringing with him a challenging season marked by a 6-13 record and a 5.24 ERA. Despite his struggles, his 4.74 xERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky and may be due for some positive regression. Canning's performance will be crucial, especially against a Rangers offense that ranks 25th in MLB, a slight edge over the Angels' 26th-ranked offense. On the offensive side, Jack Lopez has been a bright spot for Los Angeles, boasting a .471 batting average and 1.324 OPS over the last week.

Andrew Heaney, the Rangers' starter, has had a mixed season with a 5-14 record but a respectable 3.98 ERA. While Heaney's projections suggest he might allow 2.6 earned runs today, his ability to keep the Angels' bats quiet will be key. The Rangers' Wyatt Langford has been on a tear, hitting .304 with three home runs and three stolen bases in his last six games, providing a spark for Texas.

The Angels are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +125, translating to an implied win probability of 43%. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them a 49% chance of winning, indicating potential value for bettors. With both teams struggling offensively and on the mound, this matchup could be closer than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Heaney is projected to throw 82 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 16th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Leody Taveras has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has gone to his change-up 5.1% more often this season (26.9%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Kevin Pillar's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.6-mph mark last season has lowered to 87.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Los Angeles Angels projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 90 games (+6.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.89 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.33

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