Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Reid Detmers - Angels

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers gear up for their American League West clash on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves out of the playoff hunt. The Angels, with a dismal 63-96 record, are enduring a rough season, while the Rangers sit at 75-84, performing below average. Despite being out of contention, this matchup still offers intriguing betting angles, especially with the projected starting pitchers.

The Angels will send left-hander Reid Detmers to the mound. Detmers has struggled this season with a 4-8 record and a concerning 6.67 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.04 suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could see some positive regression. On the flip side, the Rangers counter with Jacob deGrom, an elite right-hander, boasting a stellar 1.35 ERA over just two starts this year. Still, his xFIP of 3.41 indicates that he's been fortunate and might regress slightly.

Offensively, both teams rank poorly in most categories. The Angels' lineup is 26th in overall performance and 28th in batting average, while the Rangers aren't much better, ranking 25th and 22nd, respectively. The Angels' bullpen, ranked last in the Power Rankings, could be a significant factor, especially when facing a Rangers' bullpen that sits at 17th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a 60% win probability, aligning with their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160. Meanwhile, the Angels, priced at +140, carry a 40% implied win probability. The projections suggest a slight edge for the Rangers, predicting them to score an average of 4.52 runs compared to the Angels' 3.42. With both lineups struggling, this game could hinge on which starting pitcher can best exploit the opposing offense's weaknesses.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jacob deGrom will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Adolis Garcia has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 86-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Rangers projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .322 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Reid Detmers's 2131-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 21st percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury's true offensive ability to be a .299, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .079 gap between that figure and his actual .220 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 90 games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Reid Detmers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 46% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.49 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.43

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