Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Prediction For 7/14/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Texas Rangers on July 14, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, fans can expect an intriguing American League West showdown. The Astros, sitting at 50-45, are having an above-average season and currently hold the upper hand in the standings over the 45-50 Rangers, who are struggling to find consistency.

This game marks the third in the series between these two rivals. The Astros have an implied win probability of 55% according to betting markets, while advanced metrics suggest this matchup could be tighter than expected. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting value in betting on the Rangers.

On the mound, the Astros will start Ronel Blanco, a right-hander with a deceptive 2.53 ERA this season. However, his 4.20 xFIP indicates he's been fortunate and might regress. Blanco's projected average performance today, including 5.4 innings and 2.8 earned runs, puts him in a vulnerable spot against a Rangers offense that ranks 17th in MLB.

The Rangers counter with veteran ace Max Scherzer, who owns a solid 3.09 ERA but also shows signs of overperformance given his 4.30 xFIP. Scherzer’s projections for today include 5.5 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, and a moderate strikeout count. Notably, the Astros' lineup, ranked 1st in team batting average and 6th overall, poses a significant challenge for Scherzer, especially given his low strikeout rate facing a team that strikes out the least in MLB.

Offensively, the Astros are in top form, with Joey Loperfido leading the charge over the last week with a .400 batting average and 1.417 OPS. Meanwhile, Corey Seager has been the standout for the Rangers, hitting three home runs and posting a 1.220 OPS in his last six games.

The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 7th, outshines the Rangers’ 20th-ranked relief corps, potentially playing a crucial role in the latter innings. With both offenses capable of scoring runs, and Scherzer’s recent luck potentially running out, this game could hinge on the bullpens and timely hitting.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Josh Smith has been very fortunate this year. His .368 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .315.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Texas Rangers hitters as a unit rank 29th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 90.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 37 games (+19.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.82 vs Houston Astros 4.44

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