Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Prediction For 4/14/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Cristian Javier - Astros
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -195, Astros -1.5 165
• Money Line: Rangers 100, Astros -120
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 48%
• Houston Astros - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 48.57%
• Houston Astros - 51.43%

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Texas Rangers in an American League West matchup on April 14, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, who are currently having a terrible season with a 5-11 record, will be seeking redemption against the Rangers, who are having an above-average season with an 8-7 record.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier. Javier has started three games this year, boasting a 1-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.10. However, his 5.57 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate and may not perform as well going forward. On the other side, the Rangers are projected to start Nathan Eovaldi, who has also started three games this year, with a 1-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.45. Like Javier, Eovaldi's 3.45 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Astros rank as the 5th best in MLB, displaying their underlying talent regardless of their year-to-date performance. They excel in team batting average, ranking 14th, and team home runs, ranking 9th. Meanwhile, the Rangers boast the 4th best offense in MLB, showcasing their powerful lineup with high rankings in team batting average (2nd) and team home runs (5th). However, the Rangers struggle in stolen bases, ranking 25th among all teams.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Astros ranked 15th and the Rangers ranked 8th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. These rankings reflect the underlying talent of the bullpens regardless of their year-to-date performance.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Javier, a high-flyball pitcher, will be facing a powerful Rangers offense that has hit 165 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB. This could give the Rangers an advantage, as their power may exploit Javier's propensity for flyballs. Additionally, Javier struggles with control, with a 13.2 BB%. The Rangers, known for their patience at the plate, ranking 5th in walks, could draw many walks against Javier.

Eovaldi, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face an Astros offense that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB, ranking 5th. This could potentially benefit the Astros, as Eovaldi may find it more challenging to capitalize on his strength of strikeouts.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Astros are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, suggesting a 52% implied win probability, while the Rangers have a moneyline of +100, indicating a 48% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to the average starter, Nathan Eovaldi has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 4.2 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corey Seager may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Cristian Javier encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When estimating his batting average ability, Yordan Alvarez is projected as the 4th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Rangers vs Astros Prediction: Rangers 4.57 - Astros 4.44

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