Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 7/12/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Texas Rangers on July 12, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, this American League West matchup sets the stage for an intriguing series opener. The Astros, with a 49-44 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to strengthen their playoff push. Meanwhile, the Rangers, at 44-49, are struggling to keep pace and will need a strong performance to stay competitive.

The Astros will send Hunter Brown to the mound, who has been a solid presence with a 6-6 record and a 4.48 ERA. Despite his average ERA, Brown's 3.66 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Brown is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allow 2.3 earned runs, and strike out 5.5 batters. However, he may struggle with control, as he projects to allow 1.9 walks.

On the other side, the Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who has had a tough season with a 3-9 record and a 3.80 ERA. Heaney's projections aren't favorable, with an expected 5.0 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, and 4.5 strikeouts. His high allowance of 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks per game could spell trouble against a potent Astros offense.

Houston's lineup, ranked 6th in MLB by THE BAT X, boasts the league's best team batting average and ranks 9th in home runs. The Astros' offense will look to capitalize on Heaney's struggles. Joey Loperfido has been particularly hot, hitting .357 with a 1.269 OPS over the last week, providing a timely spark.

The Rangers' offense, ranked 16th, will rely heavily on Corey Seager, who has been their best hitter over the last week with a .333 average and 1.116 OPS. However, facing a strong Astros bullpen, ranked 13th, could be a daunting task.

With the Astros favored at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, Houston looks poised to take the series opener. The Rangers, as +130 underdogs with a 42% implied win probability, will need a standout performance to pull off the upset. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair. All eyes will be on Minute Maid Park as these division rivals clash in what promises to be an exciting contest.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (47.8% compared to 42.3% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of all SPs, Hunter Brown's fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last 14 days, Chas McCormick's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros projected lineup projects as the 4th-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+15.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.19 vs Houston Astros 4.79

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.