Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Pick For 7/13/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers square off on July 13, 2024, for the second game of their series at Minute Maid Park. This American League West matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Astros, with a 50-44 record, are having an above-average season, while the Rangers sit at 44-50, struggling to find their footing.

On the mound, the Astros will start Spencer Arrighetti, a right-handed pitcher who has had a tough season. Arrighetti holds a 4-7 record with a dismal 5.96 ERA. However, there's a silver lining: his 4.42 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, also a right-hander. Eovaldi has been solid this year, boasting a 6-3 record and a stellar 3.10 ERA. Yet, his 3.69 xERA indicates he's been fortunate and may regress.

Offensively, the Astros have a clear edge. With the 7th-best offense in MLB, they lead the league in team batting average and rank 11th in home runs. Joey Loperfido has been particularly hot, hitting .400 with a 1.417 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Rangers' offense is middling, ranking 16th overall. Despite this, Corey Seager has been on fire recently, recording a .360 batting average and a 1.207 OPS in his last six games.

The bullpens also favor Houston, ranked 9th compared to the Rangers' 16th. This could be a crucial factor in a game projected to be close, with the Astros' moneyline set at +100 and the Rangers' at -120.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests Arrighetti will pitch five innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, while Eovaldi is expected to go six innings with the same earned run projection. Given the Astros' superior offense and bullpen, they might be undervalued by the betting markets in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.0 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adolis Garcia has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 95.9-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Texas's 90.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #30 team in the league this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Spencer Arrighetti encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.293) implies that Joey Loperfido has been very fortunate this year with his .337 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 59 games (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.71 vs Houston Astros 4.29

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