Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Best Bet – 4/12/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • J.P. France - Astros
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -175, Astros -1.5 150
• Money Line: Rangers 115, Astros -135
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 100

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 45%
• Houston Astros - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 47.04%
• Houston Astros - 52.96%

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

The Houston Astros will face off against the Texas Rangers in an American League West matchup scheduled for April 12, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, with a record of 4-10 this season, are having a tough time, while the Rangers have been performing above average with a record of 7-6.

The Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher J.P. France, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, France is ranked as the #186 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst in the league. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning. While Dunning's ERA is above average, his xERA and FIP indicate that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in future games.

In terms of offense, the Astros rank as the #10 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and a good number of home runs. The Rangers, however, have been impressive, ranking as the #3 best offense in MLB with a great team batting average and a high number of home runs.

Considering the pitching matchup, France's high-flyball tendency may be a disadvantage against the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks #5 in MLB in home runs. However, France's low-walk rate may neutralize the Rangers' patient approach at the plate.

The current odds indicate a close game, with the Astros being the favorites at -135 and the Rangers as the underdogs at +115. The implied win probability for the Astros is 55%, while it is 45% for the Rangers.

Based on the current odds, the Astros have a higher implied team total of 5.02 runs compared to the Rangers' 4.48 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Texas Rangers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Adolis Garcia has shown some good exit velocity metrics lately, averaging 104.5-mph on his flyballs in the last two weeks.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Wyatt Langford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

J.P. France has averaged 17.3 outs per GS since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Texas (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Yainer Diaz, the Astros's expected catcher today, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 86 of their last 153 games (+21.65 Units / 11% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers 4.59 vs Houston Astros 4.61

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.