Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 4/17/2024

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -175, Tigers -1.5 150
• Money Line: Rangers 130, Tigers -150
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 100

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 42%
• Detroit Tigers - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 43.71%
• Detroit Tigers - 56.29%

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 17, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park in an American League matchup. The Tigers, with a season record of 10-7, are having a great season, while the Rangers hold a 9-9 record, making it an average season for them. Tarik Skubal is projected to start for the Tigers, and he will be up against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Skubal is a left-handed pitcher, while Dunning is a right-handed pitcher.

This game marks the third meeting between these two teams in the series, with Detroit winning in Texas on Tuesday. Skubal has started three games this year and holds an impressive 2-0 win/loss record with an ERA of 2.08. However, his 2.79 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Dunning, on the other hand, has started three games as well, with a 2-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.50. His 6.69 xERA and 6.25 FIP indicate that he may have been lucky and could face challenges in future performances.

Skubal is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, striking out 6.3 batters, but giving up 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks on average. Dunning, too, is expected to pitch 5.3 innings on average, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and surrendering 5.2 hits and 1.9 walks.

When it comes to offense, the Tigers rank as the 27th best team in MLB, with a poor performance in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Rangers have a more powerful offense, ranking 6th overall, excelling in team batting average and home runs.

Considering the current odds, the Tigers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Rangers, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +125, with an implied win probability of 43%. The Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.06 runs, while the Rangers have a low implied team total of 3.44 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Tarik Skubal will ring up an average of 6.3 strikeouts in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 97 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 92 of their last 164 games (+26.78 Units / 12% ROI)

Rangers vs Tigers Prediction: Rangers 3.9 - Tigers 4.22

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.