Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 4/18/2024

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 18, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -215, Tigers -1.5 185
• Money Line: Rangers -110, Tigers -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5 -110

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 50%
• Detroit Tigers - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 50.15%
• Detroit Tigers - 49.85%

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 18, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park. As the home team, the Tigers will look to continue their good season with a record of 10-8, while the Rangers aim to maintain their above-average performance with a record of 10-9. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between two competitive teams.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda, who has had a challenging start to the season. With an ERA of 6.00, Maeda is below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 4.99 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On average, Maeda is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and giving up 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks.

Opposing Maeda on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Jack Leiter of the Rangers. According to our projections, Leiter is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. On average, he is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and giving up 4.4 hits and 2.1 walks.

The Tigers' offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, with a low team batting average, home run count, and stolen base ranking. In contrast, the Rangers' offense is ranked 8th best in MLB, excelling in team batting average and home runs. However, they struggle in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Tigers rank 11th best in MLB, while the Rangers rank 16th best. Both teams have average bullpen rankings according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Tigers' best hitter this season has been Kerry Carpenter, who has been performing well over the last week with a .364 batting average and a 1.189 OPS. On the other hand, the Rangers' best hitter over the last seven games has been Jonah Heim, with a .286 batting average and a .824 OPS.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Rangers have the same implied team total.

Considering the Tigers' slightly higher projected win probability, they enter this game as the favorites with a moneyline set at -110. However, the betting markets expect a close game, as the Rangers also have a -110 moneyline.

With the Tigers having a good season and the Rangers performing above average, this game promises an exciting clash between two competitive teams. The Tigers will rely on their solid bullpen and the performance of their best hitter, Kerry Carpenter, while the Rangers will look to their strong offense and the contributions of Jonah Heim. It will be interesting to see how the starting pitchers, Kenta Maeda and Jack Leiter, fare in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all SPs, Kenta Maeda's fastball velocity of 90.2 mph ranks in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Texas's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Torkelson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 140 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 87 of their last 158 games (+18.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 74% ROI)

Rangers vs Tigers Prediction: Rangers 4.65 - Tigers 4.4

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