Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 4/15/2024

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
• Run Line: Rangers -1.5 135, Tigers 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Rangers -120, Tigers 100
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 52%
• Detroit Tigers - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 48.77%
• Detroit Tigers - 51.23%

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 15, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Texas Rangers in an American League matchup at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a season record of 9-6, are having a great season compared to the Rangers, who hold an average record of 8-8.

The Tigers will have home-field advantage as they face off against the Rangers, who will be the away team. Reese Olson, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Tigers, while the Rangers are expected to start Michael Lorenzen, also a right-handed pitcher.

Olson has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.40, which is considered bad. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Olson is ranked as the #113 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is average among approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, Lorenzen is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the same Power Rankings.

In terms of offense, the Tigers rank as the #25 best in MLB, while the Rangers have an impressive ranking of #5. The Tigers offense has struggled in various categories such as team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases, all ranking in the bottom half of MLB. In contrast, the Rangers have excelled in these areas, ranking in the top five in team batting average, home runs, and overall offensive performance.

Looking at the projected stats for Olson and Lorenzen, Olson is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 4.6 batters, and give up 4.9 hits and 1.8 walks on average. Lorenzen, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, strike out 4.4 batters, and give up 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

The game total for this matchup is currently set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Tigers have a moneyline of +100, suggesting a 48% implied win probability, while the Rangers have a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability. The odds indicate that this game is expected to be a close one.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching a 6.53 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.24 — a 0.71 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Wyatt Langford is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Texas's 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Parker Meadows stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Rangers vs Tigers Prediction: Rangers 4.58 - Tigers 4.45

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.