Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox Best Bet – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers will face off in their first game of the series on August 27, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently struggling with a dismal record of 31-101, find themselves at the bottom of the standings, while the Rangers sit at 60-71, having a below-average season. Both teams are looking to build some momentum, but the White Sox’s recent form has been particularly troubling as they aim to snap a losing streak.

On the mound, the White Sox will send Garrett Crochet, who has been an anomaly this season. Despite his 6-9 record, he ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a solid ERA of 3.64. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging only 4.0 innings pitched and allowing 1.8 earned runs, which is above average but far from elite. His performance has been undermined by a shaky offense, which ranks 30th in the league, and has struggled to generate runs consistently.

Andrew Heaney, projected to start for the Rangers, has been less impressive this year with a 4-13 record and an ERA of 4.04. While his projection suggests he could pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, his high-flyball tendencies may be exposed against a White Sox lineup that has the 3rd least home runs in MLB with only 90 this season.

The Rangers come into this matchup as betting favorites with a current moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs. Meanwhile, the White Sox are the underdogs at +125, with an average implied team total of 3.92 runs. Given the disparities in pitching and offensive capabilities, this matchup leans in favor of the Rangers, who will look to capitalize on their opponent's struggles.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Heaney is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Robbie Grossman's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.5-mph mark last year has dropped to 87.5-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen projects as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Garrett Crochet will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Texas (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Lenyn Sosa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games (+5.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Josh Jung has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.55 Units / 50% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.94 vs Chicago White Sox 4.56

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