Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 6/30/2024

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to host the Texas Rangers on June 30, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the stakes are high for both teams, but for very different reasons. The Orioles, boasting a stellar 53-30 record, are having a fantastic season and are looking to solidify their position at the top of the standings. In stark contrast, the Rangers, with a disappointing 37-46 record, are struggling and appear to be out of playoff contention.

Baltimore will send left-hander Cole Irvin to the mound. Irvin has started 13 games this year, posting a solid 3.74 ERA and a 6-4 record. However, his 4.27 xFIP suggests that he may have been somewhat lucky and could face challenges ahead. Despite being ranked #234 in THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Irvin projects to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs on average today. His strikeout rate is a concern, as he averages only 3.7 strikeouts per game, which is subpar.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Andrew Heaney, also a left-hander. Heaney has had a tough season, with a 2-9 record and a 4.17 ERA over 15 starts. He is one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to THE BAT X, and projections indicate he will pitch 4.6 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average today. Heaney's high flyball rate (38%) could spell trouble against a powerful Orioles lineup that ranks 1st in home runs and team batting average.

Offensively, Baltimore is a juggernaut, ranked 1st in overall offense and 4th in team batting average. Heston Kjerstad has been particularly hot, hitting .417 with 2 home runs and 7 RBIs over the last week. The Rangers' offense, ranked 23rd overall, has struggled, although Adolis Garcia has been a bright spot, hitting .286 with 3 home runs and a .998 OPS in the last seven games.

The Orioles' bullpen is ranked 11th, while the Rangers' bullpen is 15th, both considered average. Baltimore's potent offense and solid bullpen make them the favorites, with a current moneyline of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Rangers, as underdogs with a +135 moneyline, have an implied win probability of 41%. The Orioles’ high implied team total of 4.94 runs further underscores their offensive prowess.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tallying 15.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Andrew Heaney places him the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.8) provides evidence that Wyatt Langford has had some very poor luck this year with his 7.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cole Irvin's curveball percentage has jumped by 11.2% from last year to this one (15.2% to 26.4%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jorge Mateo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 77 games (+17.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+12.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.93 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.18

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