Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 6/28/2024

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to face the Texas Rangers on June 28, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, this American League matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Orioles are enjoying a fantastic season, boasting a 51-30 record, while the Rangers have struggled to a 37-44 mark, reflecting their below-average performance.

Baltimore, currently 2nd in their division and eyeing a deep playoff run, has shown offensive prowess this season. They've excelled in multiple categories, ranking 1st in home runs and 6th in team batting average. Cedric Mullins has been particularly hot, with a .500 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week.

On the mound for the Orioles will be Albert Suarez, who, despite an impressive 2.05 ERA, carries a concerning 4.47 xFIP, indicating that his stellar performance may be unsustainable. Suarez is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.3 innings, a rather average projection. However, his strikeout rate (19.7%) is below average, and he may find it challenging against the Rangers' low-strikeout offense.

Texas, on the other hand, is trying to shake off a tough season. Their offensive struggles are evident, ranking 22nd overall. However, Josh H. Smith has been a bright spot recently, hitting .292 with a .997 OPS over the last week.

Max Scherzer, the Rangers' projected starter, brings a solid pedigree to the mound. Ranked 46th among pitchers, Scherzer projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 4.9 innings, with an average strikeout rate of 5.4. Despite his elite status, his innings projection is less than ideal, highlighting potential issues with longevity or efficiency.

The Orioles bullpen, ranked 12th, offers a slight edge over the Rangers' 13th-ranked bullpen, adding another layer of intrigue to this contest. Betting markets and projections both suggest a close game, with Baltimore favored at -135, reflecting a 55% implied win probability, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 53% chance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer has compiled a 13.3% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

When it comes to his home runs, Wyatt Langford has experienced some negative variance this year. His 5.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers grades them out as the #24 group of hitters in the league this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Recording 14.4 outs per start this year on average, Albert Suarez falls in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ryan O'Hearn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+18.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+13.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.6 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.46

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