Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Texas Rangers on September 10, 2024, both teams look to gain momentum in their respective standings. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 80-64, showcasing a strong season, while the Rangers are at 70-74, having experienced an average campaign. This matchup marks the first in a series between these clubs, and with the Diamondbacks' potent offense ranking 1st in all of MLB, they are considered a tough challenge for any opposing pitcher.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, who comes off an impressive performance where he pitched a 6-inning no-hitter against the Astros on September 4, allowing no earned runs and striking out eight batters. Gallen ranks 28th among all starting pitchers and has a solid 3.69 ERA for the season. Despite projecting to allow an average of 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks today, Gallen's ability to limit runs could play a pivotal role.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi. While Eovaldi holds a respectable 3.55 ERA and ranks 49th among MLB starters, he faces a daunting challenge against a Diamondbacks lineup that has hit 183 home runs this season—a ranking of 4th best in the league. Eovaldi's tendency to induce ground balls (50% GB rate) might help him mitigate the Diamondbacks' power, but his recent performance indicates he's susceptible to runs, especially with a projected average of 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Betting lines currently favor the Diamondbacks with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a 56% implied win probability. Yet, projections suggest they could score even higher, averaging 4.36 runs in this matchup. As both teams ramp up for a crucial game, the Diamondbacks appear well-positioned to leverage their offensive strength against a Rangers team that has struggled to keep pace on the scoreboard this season.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all starters, Nathan Eovaldi's fastball spin rate of 2188 rpm is in the 17th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adrian Del Castillo has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Pavin Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 89 games (+31.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+15.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+22.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.28 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.69

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