Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick For 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Texas Rangers on September 11, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. Arizona sits in a strong position with an 81-64 record, showcasing their prowess this season, while Texas struggles at 70-75, marking them as a team in decline. The Diamondbacks' recent performance has been impressive, highlighted by their commanding 6-0 victory over the Rangers just a day earlier.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for Arizona, bringing a 4-0 record this year despite an ERA of 4.08. Although his numbers suggest he might have been fortunate, he still ranks as an average pitcher. In his last outing, Kelly went 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 8 batters, showcasing his potential to dominate. Conversely, Cody Bradford will start for Texas, boasting a solid 3.05 ERA but also indicating he might regress based on his 3.98 xFIP. Bradford's last performance saw him pitch 6 innings with only 1 earned run, but he faces a daunting task against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Arizona's offense ranks 1st in MLB, excelling in power with 183 home runs this season. They are well-positioned to capitalize on Bradford's tendency to allow fly balls, potentially turning them into home runs. Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense ranks 23rd, struggling to find consistency and likely to face challenges against a strong Diamondbacks bullpen ranked 4th.

The leading MLB projection system suggests Arizona is favored to win with a projected team total of 4.85 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to maintain their recent success against a struggling Texas squad. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Diamondbacks to solidify their standing in the playoff race while the Rangers look to salvage their season.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Cody Bradford has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jonah Heim will bat from his bad side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Herrera in the 1st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 92 games (+27.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 50 games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.58 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.7

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.