Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 8/29/2025
The Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals will open a three-game interleague series on Friday night at Nationals Park. Both of these teams are under .500 for the season but there are still opportunities to find value in the betting markets when they face off. Before this matchup from Washington, you can find my analysis for this game and my Rays vs Nationals prediction below.
Our Rays vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Rays -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Friday, August 29, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Tampa Bay – Adrian Houser (7–4, 2.88 ERA)
- Washington – Mitchell Parker (7–14, 6.01 ERA)
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: MASN and FDS-SUN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Adrian Houser brings a solid 2.88 ERA and a 7–4 record into this start. Now that he is free from the shadow of the Chicago White Sox organization he will look to pick up more wins while continuing to pitch well. Mitchell Parker has struggled this season for the Nats. He has a 6.01 ERA and a 7–14 record. He has given up 148 hits in 134.2 innings. The Rays have the upper hand in the pitching department in this matchup.
Key Players
- Junior Caminero (Rays): Caminero has hit 39 home runs this season and is one away from number 40 heading into this game.
- Nationals Bullpen: Washington has the worst bullpen ERA in baseball and will try to avoid being dismantled in that facet of the game tonight.
Recent team streaks
- Rays: The Rays have lost their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians before this series..
- Nationals: Washington has dropped five games in a row and are closing in on being eliminated from playoff contention.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Adrian Houser | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| C.J. Abrams | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first matchup between the Rays and Nationals so far this season.
- Tampa Bay is 24-18 in interleague matchups this year.
- Washington is 18-24 against American League opponents.
Rays vs Nationals Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 6 – Nationals 3
Win Probability: Rays 63%, Nationals 37%
Final Thoughts
Tampa Bay should be able to cover the runline in a win over the Washington Nationals on Friday. The Rays have the starting pitching edge in this game and they should be able to score against a Washington team that was outscored 26-8 by the New York Yankees over three games this week. I’ll lay the runline with Tampa here and expect them to hand the Nats a sixth consecutive loss.
