Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/19/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Alek Manoah - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 19, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, currently having a challenging season with a 19-25 record, will be looking to turn things around against the Rays, who are having an above-average season with a 25-22 record. This American League East matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah. Manoah, with a record of 0-1 this season and an ERA of 4.91, has shown signs of potential but has been below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.84 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward. Manoah projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters, but also allowing 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks on average in today's game.

Opposing Manoah on the mound will be Aaron Civale, the right-handed pitcher for the Rays. Civale has started nine games this year, with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.83, which is below average. However, his 3.44 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and has the potential to perform better. Civale projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, but also allowing 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks on average in today's game.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Blue Jays currently rank as the 23rd best team in MLB this season. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. Their offense is average in terms of home runs and stolen bases, ranking 15th and 19th, respectively. On the other hand, the Rays have an average overall offensive ranking of 17th but perform well in team batting average, ranking 9th. They excel in both home runs and stolen bases, ranking 4th and 2nd, respectively.

According to the current odds, the Blue Jays and the Rays have equal implied win probabilities at -110. The Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Rays also have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale's 2387.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 81st percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Toronto's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Generating 14 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Alek Manoah falls in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

George Springer is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 18 away games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.07 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.49

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