Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 7/24/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays face off again at Rogers Centre on July 24, 2024, in the second game of their series. Toronto enters the matchup with a 45-55 record, falling below expectations this season, while Tampa Bay is holding an average 51-50 record. Yesterday's game saw the Rays edge out a 4-2 victory, highlighting this American League East rivalry.

Taking the mound for Toronto is Yariel Rodriguez, the 145th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although Rodriguez boasts a respectable 3.67 ERA, his 4.23 xERA suggests some luck has been involved in those numbers. His 1-3 record and projection to pitch only 3.9 innings today indicate potential struggles. Rodriguez's low projected strikeout rate (4.4) and high walk rate (1.8) don't bode well against Tampa Bay's lineup.

On the Tampa Bay side, Zach Eflin is set to start. Ranked 33rd among MLB starters, Eflin's 4.14 ERA might be misleading given his lower 3.38 xERA, indicating he's been unlucky this season. Eflin projects to pitch a solid 5.7 innings while allowing only 2.5 earned runs. His low walk rate (0.9), despite a below-average strikeout rate (4.1), presents a challenge for Toronto's #21-ranked offense, which has struggled in several areas including home runs (27th) and stolen bases (27th).

Toronto’s offense must step up, particularly Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been hot over the last week with a 0.400 batting average and three home runs. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's Randy Arozarena has been equally impressive, hitting three home runs in the last five games with a 1.373 OPS.

The bullpens also play an essential role. Toronto's bullpen is ranked 23rd, while Tampa Bay's is more reliable at 12th according to the Power Rankings. Both teams are perfectly matched in betting markets, with -110 moneylines implying a 50% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also sees this as an evenly contested game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin's 91-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 13th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Over the last 14 days, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

As a team, Tampa Bay Rays batters have not performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking worst in the league.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yariel Rodriguez has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In comparison to his 92.1-mph average last year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.1 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+17.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.41 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.12

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