Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/23/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shawn Armstrong - Rays
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23, 2024, in an American League East matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a 45-54 record, are having a below-average season, while the Rays stand at a balanced 50-50. This game marks the first in this series between the two teams.

Toronto will send right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios, with an 8-7 record and a 4.01 ERA, has been fairly average this season. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat lucky and might regress. Despite this, Berrios has been durable, starting 20 games this year. In his last outing, he struggled, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 innings.

Tampa Bay counters with Shawn Armstrong, who has a 2-2 record and a 5.91 ERA so far this season.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Blue Jays rank 22nd in overall offense, 20th in batting average, and 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. On the Rays' side, they're 21st in offense, 21st in batting average, 26th in home runs, but a respectable 5th in stolen bases.

Randy Arozarena has been a bright spot for the Rays recently, hitting .375 with 3 home runs and 4 RBIs in the past week. For the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains their best hitter, boasting a .292 average with 16 homers and a .833 OPS on the season.

The Blue Jays' bullpen, ranked 22nd by advanced stats, faces a better, though not elite, Rays bullpen ranked 11th. With Toronto coming off a close 5-4 win against the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay reeling from a 9-1 loss to the Yankees, momentum slightly favors the Blue Jays.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Toronto is favored with a projected win probability of 55%, slightly higher than their 59% implied win probability. The Blue Jays are also currently listed as -155 favorites, reflecting this slight edge. With a projected game total of 8.5 runs, expect a competitive, yet potentially low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.331) suggests that Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck this year with his .292 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this year and has mixed it in 30.1% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.51 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.81

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