Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/15/2025

On May 15, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in an intriguing American League East matchup. Both teams are looking to gain traction in a tightly contested division, with the Blue Jays currently at 21-21 and the Rays at 19-23. In their last game, the Blue Jays defeated the Rays and will look to do so again with Kevin Gausman pitching.

Toronto is set to start right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman, who has had an average season with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 3.97. Despite being ranked as the 104th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest Gausman may have been unlucky and is likely to improve. He projects to pitch about 5.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. However, he also has concerning projections for hits and walks today.

On the other hand, Zack Littell will take the mound for Tampa Bay. Littell has struggled with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 4.40, making him a below-average starter. His FIP of 5.17 suggests that he may have been fortunate so far this season. The projections indicate he will pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out only 3.6 batters, which could play into the Blue Jays' favor given their low strikeout rate.

Offensively, Toronto's attack ranks 15th overall, but struggles with power, ranking 26th in home runs. Conversely, Tampa Bay ranks 23rd overall in offense, although they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th. With Toronto's bullpen being the 5th best in MLB according to advanced stats, they may hold a slight edge, especially with their high implied team total of 4.46 runs compared to Tampa's 3.54 runs. Expect a competitive showdown as both teams look to capitalize on their respective advantages.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kameron Misner is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman has used his sinker 5.3% less often this season (0.1%) than he did last season (5.4%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Cracking 5 long-balls in the past 14 days, Daulton Varsho has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.7 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Addison Barger has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.11, Toronto Blue Jays 4.85

• Date: May 15, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.