Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in a crucial matchup in the American League East. In their previous game, the Rays grabbed an exciting 11-9 victory, showing signs of life on offense. The Blue Jays find themselves at 20-21 this season, with projections suggesting they should perform better given their talented roster. Meanwhile, the Rays are struggling at 19-22, indicating they are underperforming.

The matchup features right-handed pitchers Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays. Bassitt has been solid this season with a 3.35 ERA and is ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB, which reflects his above-average capabilities. He has started eight games, with a 3-2 record, projecting to allow just 2.6 earned runs over about 5.8 innings. This should give the Blue Jays a distinct advantage, especially when considering the Rays’ offense, which ranks 23rd overall and has struggled to generate consistent run support.

On the other side, Pepiot is experiencing a rough patch with a 3.86 ERA and a subpar 4.46 xERA, suggesting he has been somewhat fortunate this season. His projections show he may allow 2.9 earned runs in about 5.5 innings, which could be problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that, despite ranking only 16th in MLB, has shown recent improvements. The Blue Jays also boast the 4th best bullpen in MLB, giving them an edge in late-game situations.

With the Blue Jays favored at -145 and a projected team total of 4.31 runs, they appear poised to continue their momentum against a struggling Rays team, making today’s matchup one to keep an eye on for bettors.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ryan Pepiot has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.4% more often this year (58.8%) than he did last year (49.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Kameron Misner has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 80-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .301 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Tampa Bay Rays projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt's fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this season (90.6 mph) below where it was last season (92.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+6.35 Units / 52% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.16, Toronto Blue Jays 4.56

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.