Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams have had average to subpar starts this season, with the Blue Jays sitting at 20-20 and the Rays at 18-22. The matchup could prove critical as both teams look to gain momentum heading into the summer months.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-hander José Berríos, who has had a mixed start to the season with a 1-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.86. However, Berríos has been somewhat fortunate, as evidenced by his elevated xERA of 4.74, suggesting he may regress moving forward. He'll face Shane Baz of the Rays, who boasts a better Power Rankings standing as the 70th best starting pitcher. Baz's 4.93 ERA is below average, but his projections indicate he may turn a corner soon.

In terms of offensive performance, the Blue Jays rank 16th overall in MLB, but they are particularly struggling with power, sitting 27th in home runs. The Rays have an even worse ranking at 23rd, despite a respectable team batting average of 17th. This matchup shapes up as one where Berríos might exploit the Rays' inconsistencies at the plate.

Additionally, the Blue Jays’ bullpen is rated as the 4th best in MLB, which could provide a critical advantage as the game progresses, especially if the starters can't go deep into the game. The current total for the matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. With the Blue Jays favored at -125, they look to take control against the struggling Rays, who have a moneyline of +105. The projections suggest an average of 4.14 runs for the Blue Jays and 3.86 for the Rays, further solidifying expectations for a close outing.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all SPs, Shane Baz's fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 91st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last 14 days, Kameron Misner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Tampa Bay Rays projected batting order ranks as the 4th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #3 HR venue in the majors — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Addison Barger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.6-mph to 106.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.11, Toronto Blue Jays 4.41

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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