Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/5/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays are set to clash at Globe Life Field on July 5, 2024, in the first game of their series. The game will feature an American League matchup between two teams with contrasting seasons thus far. The Rangers have struggled to a 39-48 record, while the Rays sit at an even 44-43, reflecting their average performance.

On the mound for Texas will be Michael Lorenzen, whose season has seen a mix of stability and volatility. Lorenzen is 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA, but his 4.70 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate and may regress. His recent outing on June 29 saw him give up 5 earned runs in 5 innings, highlighting potential vulnerability. The Rangers' offense ranks 19th in MLB, which could further strain Lorenzen against a Rays lineup that has found a rhythm lately, thanks in part to Brandon Lowe's recent surge. Over the past week, Lowe has posted a .313 batting average, with 3 home runs and an impressive 1.359 OPS.

Tampa Bay's Shane Baz will counter Lorenzen. Baz, below-average this season, is coming off a rough outing from July 10, 2022, where he allowed 7 earned runs over just 2 innings. However, Baz projects to allow only 2.3 earned runs in this matchup, positioning him slightly better than Lorenzen. The Rays' offense, though ranked 21st overall, has shown flashes of potential with Isaac Paredes leading the charge. Paredes owns a .276 batting average and a .846 OPS for the year.

In terms of pitching depth, the Rangers' bullpen ranks 19th, whereas the Rays' bullpen is a solid 11th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This edge in late-game pitching could prove crucial in a game that is projected to be tight. Betting markets reflect this, setting the Moneyline at -120 for Texas and +100 for Tampa Bay, suggesting a closely contested game.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Rangers a 54% win probability, slightly higher than the implied probability. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup that could hinge on bullpen performance and timely hitting.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Siri).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen allowed a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last GS.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

In terms of his home runs, Wyatt Langford has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Texas's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.49 vs Texas Rangers 4.69

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