Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 4/4/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on April 4, 2025, both teams are off to strong starts this season, sitting at 5-2 and 4-2, respectively. This game marks the first of a series between the two clubs, bringing with it the potential for exciting matchups. Notably, Zack Littell took the mound for the Rays in his last outing, where he performed admirably despite not securing a win.

Tyler Mahle is projected to take the ball for the Rangers, although his season has yet to unfold as anticipated, having made only one appearance out of the bullpen with a troubling 5.40 ERA. Mahle's expected metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate thus far, and he projects to pitch just 4.7 innings today while allowing 2.2 earned runs. His high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Rays lineup that has struggled to hit home runs, ranking 2nd worst in the league with only 3 long balls.

On the other hand, Zack Littell, who has a strong 1.50 ERA, is looking to rebound from a rough outing that saw him record a loss despite a solid start. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs. Littell’s high strikeout rate could pose a problem for a Rangers offense that ranks 4th least in strikeouts this season.

Despite the Rangers sitting near the bottom of various offensive rankings, the projections favor their lineup today, suggesting they could achieve the high implied team total of 4.45 runs. Betters may see value in the Rangers, given their potential to outpace the Rays in what is expected to be a closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, hitters like Danny Jansen who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Mahle.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 146 games (+24.21 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.