Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 8/7/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 7, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, with the Cardinals holding a record of 58-56 and the Rays at 57-55. Recent performances have seen the Cardinals struggle, while the Rays have also had a few ups and downs, making this matchup crucial for both sides as they look to gain ground in a competitive landscape.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced off against the Rays, with the Cardinals winning a tight 4-3 decision. On the hill for the Cardinals will be Erick Fedde, who is having a solid year with a 3.34 ERA, ranking him as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs over 5.7 innings, a performance that could be pivotal against a Rays offense that ranks 21st overall this season. Notably, Fedde's high flyball rate may benefit him against a Tampa Bay lineup that has struggled with power, hitting only 97 home runs, the 5th least in MLB.

Opposing him is Taj Bradley, projected to pitch 5.4 innings with a stellar 2.71 ERA, placing him 44th among starting pitchers. While Bradley's numbers are impressive, projections suggest he may also face challenges, particularly with a high walk rate of 1.6 per game.

The Cardinals' offense, ranked 20th in MLB, has shown some life recently, bolstered by the performance of Tommy Pham, who has been their best hitter over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays have seen strong contributions from Josh Lowe, who has posted a .375 batting average recently.

With the Cardinals currently favored at a moneyline of -120, betting markets reflect a close contest. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has averaged 17.3 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jose Siri is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (70.2% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph EV last season has decreased to 87.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The St. Louis Cardinals have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 11.7° angle is among the lowest in baseball this year (#27 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+23.00 Units / 115% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.02 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.17

Get daily MLB picks here.