Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 8/6/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Cardinals holding a record of 57-56 and the Rays at 57-54. This game marks the beginning of a series between these two clubs, both of which are looking to gain momentum as they navigate the final stretch of the season.

The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, who has been a solid contributor this year with a 10-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.72. Gray ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. The projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters. However, his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks per outing could present challenges.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Jeffrey Springs, who has struggled this season, posting an ERA of 4.91 in just one start. Springs is ranked 82nd among starting pitchers, and his projections indicate he may allow 2.7 earned runs while pitching 5.0 innings. His high xERA of 6.11 suggests he has been fortunate thus far, and his performance may decline moving forward.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 18th in MLB, while the Rays sit at 20th, both teams showcasing average to below-average hitting. However, Tommy Pham has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, leading the team with a .360 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, Josh Lowe has been a key player for the Rays, boasting a remarkable .444 average during the same span.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, the Cardinals enter as favorites with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. This matchup could hinge on the performance of Sonny Gray, who is expected to outshine Jeffrey Springs on the mound, potentially giving the Cardinals an edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jeffrey Springs must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 59.6% of the time, grading out in the 79th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jose Siri has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 101.6-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all starters, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2536 rpm is in the 96th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year. His 27.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.4.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 6.7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #28 club in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 102 games (+11.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.79 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.37

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.