Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions, sitting just above .500 with records of 67-65 and 65-66, respectively. Neither team is currently contending for a playoff spot, but the Mariners look to build on their recent success after defeating the Rays 5-1 in their last outing on August 26.

Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for Seattle. Despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings against the Chicago White Sox, Gilbert remains a strong asset for the Mariners. With a 3.21 ERA and ranking as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has the potential to dominate against a struggling Rays offense that ranks 23rd in batting average this season. Gilbert's projections indicate he could pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing only 1.7 earned runs and striking out 7.7 batters on average, showcasing his elite capabilities.

On the other hand, Jeffrey Springs will start for Tampa Bay. Springs has had an inconsistent season with a 4.50 ERA, and while his 3.91 SIERA suggests he may have been unlucky, he still faces a tough challenge against a Mariners lineup that, despite ranking 27th in overall offense, can capitalize on mistakes.

Betting odds favor the Mariners, who have a current moneyline of -155, reflecting a 59% implied win probability. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, projects the Mariners as even bigger favorites, suggesting they have a 64% chance to win. With a low Game Total of 6.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Mariners, especially considering their recent victory and Gilbert's potential to bounce back.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Compared to the average hurler, Jeffrey Springs has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -9.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jose Siri has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .279 rate is a fair amount lower than his .327 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.9% more often this season (67.8%) than he did last year (57.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games at home (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 123 games (+15.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 2.94 vs Seattle Mariners 3.8

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.