Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 6/22/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays gear up for the second game of their interleague series on June 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates, currently holding a 36-39 record, are having a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at 37-39, are hovering around average performance. This game might not have major playoff implications, but it offers a compelling duel between two right-handed starters: Jared Jones for the Pirates and Zach Eflin for the Rays.

Jared Jones, ranked as the 78th best starting pitcher by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh. With a 3.76 ERA over 14 starts, Jones has shown flashes of brilliance despite his 4-6 win-loss record. However, his projected performance today is mixed, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipating an average of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed. The Pirates' offense, ranked 28th in MLB, will need to step up to support him.

On the other side, Zach Eflin brings a slightly better pedigree to the mound, ranked 36th among starting pitchers. Despite his 3-4 record and a 4.12 ERA, Eflin’s peripheral stats suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. His 3.45 xERA hints at a potential bounce-back performance. Eflin is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs on average. The Rays' offense, although ranked 24th, will look to capitalize on their sixth-best ranking in stolen bases.

Both teams’ bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, with the Pirates ranked 15th and the Rays 17th. This could make the latter innings particularly interesting if the game remains close.

In their last game, the Pirates leaned on Bryan Reynolds, who has been red-hot with a .348 batting average and 1.162 OPS over the past week. For the Rays, Randy Arozarena has been even better, hitting .381 with a 1.328 OPS, including two home runs and three stolen bases in his last six games.

With both teams underperforming offensively, the game might hinge on which starter can outlast the other. The betting markets reflect this, setting the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a 50% implied win probability. It’s projected to be a close one, making every pitch and at-bat crucial.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Zach Eflin's fastball velocity of 90.8 mph is in the 14th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonny Deluca has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays bats have done poorly when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (7th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Connor Joe's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has fallen to 73.6-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively place 8th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 8.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 61 games (+17.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+9.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.9 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.69

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.