Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick & Preview – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 22, 2024, both teams sit with struggles evident in their current records. The Athletics, with a 54-72 record, are not competing for a playoff spot and are coming off a tough loss against the Rays in their previous matchup. Meanwhile, the Rays hold a record of 63-62 and find themselves in the middle of a lackluster season, looking for a spark to regain momentum as the postseason approaches.

In this matchup, Oakland will rely on right-handed pitcher Osvaldo Bido, who has shown flashes of potential with a solid ERA of 3.40, even if his xFIP of 4.85 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far. Bido has also been a high-flyball pitcher, which might play to his advantage against a Tampa Bay offense that ranks 26th in home runs this season. On the other hand, the Rays will counter with Jeffrey Springs, a left-hander with a respectable ERA of 3.86. Springs has been a bit lucky as indicated by his FIP of 4.66, but his ability to limit damage will be crucial.

Offensively, the Athletics boast a surprisingly potent power game with 132 home runs, ranking 4th in MLB, despite their overall offensive struggles as illustrated by their 20th rank. Seth Brown has been a bright spot for Oakland, batting .500 over the last week. Conversely, the Rays struggle with their lineup, ranking 25th in overall offense and 23rd in batting average. Nonetheless, they have an elite stolen base game, ranking 4th, which could help them manufacture runs.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, and betting markets indicating a close battle, this contest could be an opportunity for Oakland to leverage their power against a Rays team that has been inconsistent at the plate. As they seek to turn their season around, the Athletics will look to capitalize on the strengths of their lineup while their pitching staff aims to keep the explosive Rays in check.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Compared to average, Jeffrey Springs has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -9.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In the past 14 days, Jose Siri's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's matchup, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Osvaldo Bido's high usage percentage of his fastball (53.3% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.3 mph compared to last year's 94.9 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 126 games (+24.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.18 vs Oakland Athletics 3.94

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