Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction, Picks 4/20/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
• Run Line: Rays 1.5 -175, Yankees -1.5 155
• Money Line: Rays 115, Yankees -135
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 45%
• New York Yankees - 55%

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

On April 20, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. This American League East matchup promises to be an exciting game between two competitive teams. The Yankees, with a record of 14-6, are having a great season, while the Rays, with a record of 11-10, are having an above-average season.

The Yankees will be the home team, enjoying the support of their home crowd. Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Yankees. Cortes has been ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his skill on the mound. He has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.50. However, his 3.32 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Rays, on the other hand, will be the away team, looking to spoil the Yankees' home advantage. They will start Zach Eflin, a right-handed pitcher who has been ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB. Eflin has also started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.63. Similar to Cortes, his 3.57 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

Both teams have strong offenses, with the Yankees ranking 7th in MLB and the Rays ranking 22nd. However, the Rays have an impressive ranking of 4th in team home runs and 2nd in team stolen bases. This could pose a challenge for Cortes, who has a high flyball rate, as the powerful Rays offense has hit 173 home runs this season.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are favored to win with a moneyline of -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. The Rays, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%. However, betting markets expect a close game between these two teams.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Yankees and the Rays. With strong pitching and potent offenses on both sides, it is sure to be a competitive battle at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Throwing 82.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Zach Eflin checks in at the 13th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Harold Ramirez will have an edge today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In today's game, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.8% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 9 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Nestor Cortes encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Whalloping 2 long-balls over the last week, Juan Soto has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The New York Yankees projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction: Rays 3.43 - Yankees 4.66

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