Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction – 7/28/2025
The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will face off on Monday at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are struggling going into this game and will look to get a win over one another with AL East positioning on the line. Here, I break down this division matchup from a betting standpoint and give you my Rays vs Yankees prediction from the Bronx.
Our Rays vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Rays moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 7:05 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Drew Rasmussen (7‑5, 2.93 ERA) vs Cam Schlittler (1‑0, 4.35 ERA)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: YES and FDSSUN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Rays will hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen to begin this game. Rasmussen carries a 7‑5 record with a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He’s allowed just 75 hits in 95.1 innings and struck out 82 batters while walking just 23. Rasmussen has been effective on the road in 2025. He is 3‑0 with a 3.30 ERA in seven road starts this season. He will look to take advantage of the absence of Aaron Judge here.
Cam Schlittler will make his third start for New York in this game. He has a 1‑0 record and 4.35 ERA with a WHIP of 1.55. He has allowed five earned runs in 10.1 innings of work as a Yankee and will need to bring that down a bit in the future. But the Yankees have won both games that Schlittler has started and that is all that will matter to him and his team.
Key Players
- Rays: Junior Caminero leads Tampa Bay with 26 home runs and about 68 RBI. First baseman Jonathan Aranda bats .312 and is fourth in the league in that department.
- Yankees: Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trent Grisham are always important in the Yankees lineup. They will be even more important as Aaron Judge remains out with an elbow injury.
Recent team streaks
- The Yankees have lost three of their last five games and are coming off a series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. They did win the final game of that series against Philly to salvage one of the three contests.
- The Rays have lost four of their last five games and were swept over their last three games by the Cincinnati Reds.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Cody Bellinger | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Cam Schlittler | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Yankees hold a 4-3 lead in their season series against the Rays this year.
- The Rays have won the last two games between these AL East rivals.
- Tampa is 22-25 on the road this season.
- The Yankees are 31-21 at home despite their recent struggles.
Rays vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 6 – Yankees 4
Win Probability: Rays 54%, Yankees 46%
Final Thoughts
This game is close to a pick’ em and it is hard to read the Yankees going into it. The New York offense is likely to suffer in the short term while Judge is out of action. And while Schlittler has helped the Yankees win in both games he has started, I think there are clearly some smoke and mirrors there early in his time with the club. I’m going to go with Rasmussen and the Rays to be the more consistent team here and to get a win on the road.
