Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Pick – 7/31/2025
The New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the final game of a four-game series on Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have won two straight over Tampa after dropping the opening game of this series. New York will look to secure the series win while the Rays look to salvage the split. Here, I break down this AL East matchup and give you my Rays vs Yankees prediction for Thursday.
Our Rays vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Rays Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees |
| Date & Time | July 31, 2025, 1:05 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Ryan Pepiot vs. Marcus Stroman |
| Stadium | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Form: Ryan Pepiot and Marcus Stroman will do battle on the mound to start this game. Pepiot is 6-8 with a 3.42 ERA on the season for the Rays. Stroman is 2-2 with a 6.09 ERA for the Yankees on the year. Pepiot definitely gives Tampa the advantage in the starting pitching department in this contest.
Bullpen Usage: Both bullpens are in an interesting position heading into this game. The Yankees and Rays played a thrilling 11-inning game last night. Those extra innings and the tight nature of that game led to extra relief pitchers being used. Whichever team can bounce back from that game on a tight turnaround in the bullpen will give themselves a chance to win today.
Team Momentum: The Yankees have won two straight over the Rays and will look to build on last night’s extra-inning affair. Tampa has struggled with losses in four of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Ryan Pepiot | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Jazz Chisholm | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
The Yankees lead the season series against the Rays 6-4.
- The Rays are 23-19 in day games this season. The Yankees are 23-18 in day games.
Five straight games between these teams have been decided by one or two runs.
The Yankees are 33-22 at home after winning two straight in the Bronx. Tampa is 23-27 on the road.
Rays vs Yankees Model Projection
Projected Score: Rays 5 – Yankees 3
Win Probability: Rays 57% | Yankees 43%
Final Thoughts
The starting pitching edge for the Rays in this game is a huge factor in handicapping this matchup. New York should have a hard time getting to Pepiot and Pepiot should be able to give the Rays some much needed innings to preserve their bullpen. I’m concerned with Marcus Stroman on the mound for New York here and will take the Rays to even this series at two games apiece.
