Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 7/19/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As we approach July 19, 2024, the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays are set to square off in an American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, currently sitting at 58-40, are having a great season and will look to extend their lead in the standings. On the other hand, the Rays, with a 48-48 record, are experiencing an average season and hope to turn things around.

The Yankees are projected to start Gerrit Cole, who, despite his 5.40 ERA, is ranked as the #28 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Cole's peripheral stats, including a 4.57 xFIP, suggest he's been unlucky this year and could perform better moving forward. He has a 2-1 record in five starts this season and projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters on average.

The Rays will counter with Zach Eflin, who boasts a 3.99 ERA and is ranked as the #32 best starting pitcher in MLB. Eflin's 3.24 xERA indicates he too has been unlucky this season. With a 5-6 record in 17 starts, Eflin projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters on average.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a significant edge. Their lineup ranks 4th in MLB, bolstered by a 2nd place ranking in team home runs. In contrast, the Rays' offense ranks 22nd overall and 26th in home runs, though they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th.

Given the Yankees' superior offense and Gerrit Cole's potential for better performance, they are favored with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Rays, as underdogs with a +145 moneyline and a 40% implied win probability, face an uphill battle. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tallying 17.5 outs per GS this year on average, Zach Eflin checks in at the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Richie Palacios is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Gerrit Cole has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.3% more often this year (53.3%) than he did last year (47%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+13.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+12.10 Units / 86% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.8 vs New York Yankees 4.78

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