Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 4/19/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
• Run Line: Rays 1.5 -145, Yankees -1.5 125
• Money Line: Rays 140, Yankees -160
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 40%
• New York Yankees - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 30.43%
• New York Yankees - 69.57%

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on April 19, 2024. The Yankees, with a season record of 13-6, are having an impressive start to the year. On the other hand, the Rays hold a solid record of 11-9, indicating a strong performance as well.

The Yankees, who are currently the home team, have been dominant in their home games this season. They boast a strong offense, ranking 7th best in MLB, despite their low team batting average, which is ranked 29th. The team's power is evident, as they rank 8th in home runs. Leading the charge is Juan Soto, their best hitter this season, who has shown great consistency with a .352 batting average and a 1.055 OPS.

The Rays, as the away team, have also been displaying a competitive spirit. Their offense ranks 21st in MLB, but their batting average is 9th best in the league. They have been showcasing their power, ranking 4th in home runs, as well as their speed, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. Isaac Paredes has been their standout hitter, contributing 12 RBIs and 5 home runs with a .273 batting average and a solid 0.879 OPS.

Pitching will play a crucial role in this game. The Yankees are projected to start Clarke Schmidt, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schmidt holds a 1-0 record and a respectable ERA of 3.68 this season. However, his peripheral indicator, SIERA, suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could see a decline in performance going forward.

The Rays are projected to counter with left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander. Despite his poor performance this season, with an ERA of 6.46, his peripheral indicator xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could improve in his upcoming outings.

The Yankees are currently the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of victory. However, our leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, projects the Yankees as even more dominant with a win probability of 71%.

Based on the projections, the Yankees are expected to score an average of 5.24 runs, while the Rays are projected to score 3.48 runs. This suggests a significant offensive advantage for the Yankees.

With their strong performance this season and the projected advantages in pitching, offense, and win probability, the Yankees appear to be the team to watch in this exciting American League East matchup. Fans and bettors alike can expect an intriguing game at Yankee Stadium on April 19th.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Tyler Alexander will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, there has been a decline in Jose Siri's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.78 ft/sec last year to 28.96 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Tampa Bay Rays have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 11.5° figure is among the lowest in baseball since the start of last season (#25 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of every team playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Juan Soto is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)

Rays vs Yankees Prediction: Rays 3.44 - Yankees 5.07

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