Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction – 6/15/2025

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 15, 2025, at Citi Field, this Interleague matchup carries significant weight for the Mets, who are enjoying a strong season with a 45-26 record. The Mets currently sit in a favorable position, showcasing one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking 5th overall.

On the mound, Griffin Canning is projected to start for the Mets. Despite being ranked as the 160th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he boasts a 6-2 record with an impressive ERA of 3.22 this year. However, his xFIP of 3.81 indicates that he may have been a bit fortunate thus far, and he could face challenges against a Rays offense that ranks 17th in the league. Canning is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings but will need to improve upon his projections of allowing 4.4 hits and 2.0 walks.

The Rays will counter with Shane Baz, who has been more effective this season, ranking 83rd among starting pitchers with a 4.97 ERA. Baz’s 3.97 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, potentially signaling a turnaround in his performance. While Baz projects to allow similar hits (4.4) and walks (2.5), he has the advantage of a strong Rays bullpen, ranked 7th in the league.

With the Mets being the betting favorite, their implied team total of 4.44 runs reflects confidence in their potent lineup. The projections favor the Mets, especially considering their offensive firepower against a Rays team that struggles to keep pace. As they aim to take control of the series, the Mets will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their impressive run this season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 90th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last 14 days, Kameron Misner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays batters have done poorly when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 2nd-worst in the majors.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Griffin Canning and his 43.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this matchup matching up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Alonso has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.92, New York Mets 4.31

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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