Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 6/20/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 20, 2024, at Target Field, this American League matchup brings together two teams heading in different directions. The Twins, with a solid 41-33 record, are enjoying a good season, while the Rays, at 35-39, are struggling.

The Twins' offense is a significant factor in their success, ranking 9th best in MLB according to underlying talent. They boast the 6th most home runs and a respectable 14th in team batting average. However, they are lacking in speed, ranking 20th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Rays' offense ranks 24th in MLB, struggling across the board with a 23rd place in team batting average and 27th in home runs. Their one bright spot is their speed, ranking 7th in stolen bases.

On the mound, the Twins will start right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard, who has a 3.29 ERA and a 2-1 record over 11 starts this season. While he's been effective, his 4.22 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky. His projections are mixed; he’s expected to pitch 5.0 innings, allow 2.3 earned runs, and strike out 4.4 batters – a below-average performance.

The Rays will counter with right-hander Zack Littell, whose 4.24 ERA over 13 starts has been somewhat unlucky according to his 3.62 FIP. Littell's projections indicate he'll pitch 5.5 innings, give up 2.6 earned runs, and strike out 4.8 batters. Both pitchers have struggled with control and hits allowed, which could make for a high-scoring affair.

In recent performances, Royce Lewis has been the Twins' standout hitter over the past week, hitting .400 with a 1.350 OPS, including 3 home runs and 4 RBIs in 5 games. For the Rays, Randy Arozarena has been their best hitter, batting .316 with a 1.164 OPS, 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases in his last 6 games.

Betting markets have the Twins as slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability. The Rays' moneyline is set at +110, suggesting a 46% chance. The game total is 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring game.

Given the Twins' stronger season, superior offense, and the Rays' struggles, Minnesota looks to have the edge in this matchup. However, with both starting pitchers expected to perform below average, anything can happen in this contest.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.9-mph average last season has lowered to 84.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -8.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.258) implies that Royce Lewis has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .316 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games (+17.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 69% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.17 vs Minnesota Twins 4.25

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