Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 7/4/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays (48‑39) visit Target Field to face off against the Minnesota Twins (41‑46) on Friday, July 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM ET. Tampa enters this holiday weekend a game out of first place in the AL East, making this series opener a big game for them. Here, we analyze this game from all angles and give you our Rays vs Twins prediction for Friday afternoon.

Our Rays vs Twins Pick

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (-105)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025 – 4:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell (TB, 7‑7, 3.61 ERA) vs Chris Paddack (MIN, 3‑7, 4.70 ERA)
• Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
• Broadcast: MNNT & FDSSUN

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Zack Littell enters with a 3.61 ERA. But what I want you to look out for is his inability to limit the longball. Littell has allowed 23 home runs this season and has to keep the ball in the park to help his team win this game.
• Chris Paddack has struggled with a 3-7 record and 4.70 ERA. He has failed to record an out in the sixth inning in four straight starts.

Bullpen usage

The Rays rank 13th in bullpen ERA this season, while the Twins rank 22nd in that department. Minnesota is already at a disadvantage with its starting pitching and they could struggle to make up for that with their late-game pitching.

Recent team streaks

• The Rays have lost three of their last four games. They lost two of three in their last series against the Athletics.
• The Twins have dropped four of their last five games. In their most recent series, they lost two of three to the Miami Marlins.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Twins are 29-25 as ML favorites, winning 53.7% of the time.
• Rays are 19‑17 as underdogs, ranking fourth in MLB in win percentage as a dog.
• The Rays have taken two of the first three games between these teams on the season.

Rays vs Twins Model Projection

Score Projection: Rays 5 – Twins 4

Win Probability: Rays 52%, Twins 48%

Final Thoughts

Chris Paddack’s lack of consistency and the struggles of the Twins’ bullpen behind him have me backing Tampa Bay in this game. While I am concerned with Littell’s ability to keep the ball in the park, Tampa should be able to shut things down more reliably in the late innings and get a win in what should be a good Independence Day matchup at Target Field.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.