Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 6/5/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup on June 5, 2024, the Miami Marlins will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a disappointing record of 21-40 this season, are facing a tough challenge as they host the Rays, who hold a 30-31 record and are having an average season.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Braxton Garrett, who has shown promise with a 2-0 win/loss record this year. Although Garrett's ERA stands at 4.56, his 3.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Rays will send right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin to the mound. Eflin, ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a 3-4 record this season with a 4.12 ERA. However, his 3.56 xERA indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

On the pitching side, Garrett's high-groundball rate of 58% may pose a challenge to the Rays' powerful offense, which ranks 4th in MLB in home runs. Eflin, known for his high-flyball rate of 38%, will face a Marlins offense that lacks power, ranking 3rd fewest in MLB in home runs.

According to the current odds, the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.57 runs, while the Rays have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair.

Considering the projected win probabilities, the Rays hold a slight advantage with an implied win probability of 54%, compared to the Marlins' 46%. However, betting markets suggest a close game, as indicated by the moneyline odds.

As these two teams face off in this interleague matchup, it will be interesting to see if the Marlins can overcome their struggles and deliver an upset against the Rays' solid performance this season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin's curveball utilization has dropped by 6.9% from last season to this one (26.5% to 19.6%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.88 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Christian Bethancourt hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 57 games (+20.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.43 vs Miami Marlins 4.09

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