Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Pick – 5/18/2025

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 18, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are looking to improve on disappointing seasons. The Marlins sit at 17-27, while the Rays hold a 21-24 record. Both squads have struggled to find their rhythm and are in dire need of a turnaround.

In their previous matchup, the Marlins took a loss and will look to bounce back today. However, they are still dealing with inconsistencies, particularly in their pitching staff. Cal Quantrill is projected to take the mound for Miami. Despite a 2-4 record and a troubling 7.00 ERA this year, his 4.84 xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck. Still, he projects to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs over 4.8 innings, which could put his team at a disadvantage.

On the other side, Shane Baz is slated to start for Tampa Bay. With a better overall record of 3-2 and a 5.02 ERA, Baz is considered a solid option for the Rays. His 3.86 xFIP indicates that he might be performing better than his ERA suggests, and he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.7 innings. Given his stronger profile, Baz represents a tougher challenge for the Marlins' bats.

Offensively, Miami ranks 17th in MLB, and while their batting average is an average 14th, they struggle with power, sitting 22nd in home runs. Tampa Bay's offense has been even less impressive, ranking 23rd overall and 24th in home runs, though they excel with speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup offers a slightly favorable betting outlook for the Rays, who are favored at -155. Miami's underdog status at +135 reflects the challenges they face, but there is potential for an upset given their recent victory and the projections suggesting they might outperform expectations.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz has gone to his curveball 12.7% more often this year (33.2%) than he did last season (20.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a unit place 28th- in MLB for power this year when using their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill's fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Stowers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Derek Hill has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.02, Miami Marlins 4

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

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