Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Pick – 5/17/2025

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on May 17, 2025, they find themselves in challenging positions in the standings. The Marlins currently sit at 17-26, while the Rays are slightly better at 20-24. Both teams are struggling, with the Marlins having a particularly tough season. In their last outing on May 16, the Marlins managed a solid 9-4 victory, breaking a streak of poor performances, while the Rays suffered the same fate, losing 9-4.

On the mound, Sandy Alcantara is projected to start for the Marlins. Despite being ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Alcantara has had a rough year, holding a 2-5 record and an alarming ERA of 8.10. However, his 4.51 xFIP indicates he may have faced some bad luck and could improve moving forward. He’s projected to pitch 6.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 5.6 batters, but he also tends to allow 5.6 hits and 1.6 walks, which could be problematic against the Rays.

Drew Rasmussen, on the other hand, is slated to take the hill for Tampa Bay. With a 1-4 record and a stellar ERA of 3.38, he is ranked 29th among pitchers. Although he has been effective, projections suggest he may be due for a decline. He is expected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out around 5.3 batters.

The Marlins' offense ranks 20th in MLB, and while they have a decent batting average of .261, they struggle with power, sitting at 21st in home runs. The Rays also face offensive challenges, ranking 22nd overall, but they do possess speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases.

With the Marlins entering the game as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, they may find an opportunity to build on their recent win, especially if Alcantara can harness his potential. The game total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, reflecting the struggles both offenses have faced this season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen's 2500-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 92nd percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays ranks them as the #25 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Sandy Alcantara (50.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Matt Mervis has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.19, Miami Marlins 3.63

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

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