Tampa Bay Rays VS Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 4/9/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 135, Angels 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Rays -120, Angels 100
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 52%
• Los Angeles Angels - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 42.85%
• Los Angeles Angels - 57.15%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a season record of 6-4, are having a great season so far, while the Rays, with a record of 5-6, are having a below average season. This American League matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams.

The Angels will be the home team for this game, playing in front of their fans at Angel Stadium. They will be looking to continue their strong season and capitalize on their impressive offense. The Angels currently rank as the 17th best offense in MLB, with the 12th best team batting average and the 3rd most team home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is quite low, sitting at 27th in the league.

The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has had a mixed performance this season. While his win/loss record stands at 1-1, his ERA sits at 6.14. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Sandoval is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters. However, he is projected to allow 5.2 hits and 2.1 walks, which could be areas of concern.

On the other side, the Rays will be sending out right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale, who has been performing well this season. With a win/loss record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.50, Civale has been a reliable starter for the Rays. However, his 3.23 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Civale is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters. He is also projected to allow 5.1 hits and 1.3 walks, which are areas that could be exploited by the Angels' powerful offense.

In terms of bullpen rankings, the Angels rank 19th in the league, while the Rays rank 22nd. This suggests that both teams have average bullpens, which could play a role in the outcome of the game.

Taking into account the projected performances and offensive rankings, the Angels have an implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Rays have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs. However, THE BAT X projects both teams to score a very low average of 0.00 runs in this game.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup, with the Rays holding a slight edge in terms of implied win probability. However, the Angels' powerful offense and Sandoval's advantage as a high-groundball pitcher against the Rays' home-run power could be factors to watch out for. It will be an exciting game between two teams looking to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged being matched up with 7 same-handed bats in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Isaac Paredes has been hot recently, notching 3 homers in the past 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 21.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Mike Trout is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.19 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Caballero has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 4.3 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.72

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