Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 2, 2024, the matchup promises to be a competitive one. The Royals, with a 47-39 record, are having an above-average season and will look to solidify their standing in the American League. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at a balanced 42-42, are aiming to gain momentum as they enter this series.

Kansas City will send Brady Singer to the mound. Singer, ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has been solid this season with a 3.12 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, with a 3.96 FIP indicating potential regression. Singer projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs, which positions him well against a Rays offense that ranks 20th in MLB in both overall performance and team batting average.

Tampa Bay counters with Zack Littell, who has struggled this year with a 4.17 ERA and a 2-5 record. Littell projects to allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.3 innings, which could spell trouble against a Royals offense that ranks 15th in MLB overall and 13th in team batting average. Kansas City’s lineup, led by the hot-hitting Vinnie Pasquantino—who boasts a .407 batting average and 1.192 OPS over the last week—could exploit Littell's vulnerabilities.

While the Royals' bullpen ranks as the 26th best in MLB, indicating potential late-game struggles, the Rays' bullpen is more reliable, sitting at 11th in the Power Rankings. This could be crucial in a game that betting markets expect to be close, with Kansas City's moneyline at -120 and Tampa Bay's at +100.

In what promises to be a tightly contested game, look for the Royals to leverage their home-field advantage and above-average season performance to edge out the Rays in this series opener at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Littell to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 84.9-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly rank near the bottom of MLB this year ( 3rd-worst) in regard to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's sinker usage has fallen by 11.7% from last year to this one (51.1% to 39.4%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.4) may lead us to conclude that Bobby Witt Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year with his 19.3 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 82 games (+21.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.21 vs Kansas City Royals 5.34

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