Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/26/2025

As the Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 26, 2025, both teams are looking to get a win this afternoon. While the Royals are struggling with a record of 38-42 this season, the Rays have been solid with a 45-35 record. The last game saw the Rays take a decisive win, and they will aim to continue that momentum against a Royals team that's having a notably below-average season.

Projected starters for this matchup are right-handers Michael Lorenzen for the Royals and Shane Baz for the Rays. Lorenzen, ranked as the 204th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a rough season with a 4-7 record and a 4.81 ERA. His projections indicate that he may allow around 3.2 earned runs, which is concerning given the Royals' offensive struggles, ranking 27th in MLB. They have hit only 56 home runs this season, the 2nd least in the league.

On the other hand, Shane Baz is projected to be a more effective pitcher, currently sitting at 81st in the rankings with a 7-3 record and a 4.79 ERA. Although his projections indicate he might allow 2.9 earned runs, he faces a Royals offense that struggles to capitalize on pitching mistakes, especially against high-walk pitchers like Baz.

Given the advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Rays' bullpen ranks 5th, while the Royals' ranks 6th, both indicating solid depth in relief. Ultimately, the projections suggest the Rays might have the edge in this matchup, particularly with their strong recent play and the Royals' ongoing offensive woes. The Game Total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an active scoring game, though the Royals' lack of power could limit their output against Baz.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering that flyball batters hold a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Shane Baz and his 43.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Hitters such as Yandy Diaz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael Lorenzen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.1% compared to 51.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Over the past 7 days, Bobby Witt Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 22.2%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 66 games (+25.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.78 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 53% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.17, Kansas City Royals 4.79

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

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